Spatiotemporal Assessment and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Urban Green Spaces Using Landsat Remote Sensing and CA–Markov Modeling

Urban green spaces are increasingly threatened by rapid urban expansion, making their continuous monitoring and prediction essential for sustainable urban management. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban garden landscapes in Shiraz, Iran, by integrating multi-temporal Landsat imagery, GIS analysis, and CA–Markov modeling. Landsat data from 2003, 2013, and 2023 were processed to derive the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was classified into four vegetation-density categories to quantify land-cover transitions. A CA–Markov framework implemented in IDRISI TerrSet (Version 20.0) was then employed to simulate spatial dynamics and predict vegetation changes for 2033. Results reveal a significant expansion of non-vegetated areas from 711.93 ha in 2003 to 976.66 ha in 2023, accompanied by a decline in dense vegetation from 403.68 ha to 382.64 ha. Model projections indicate a further reduction in dense vegetation to 239.35 ha by 2033, suggesting ongoing fragmentation of urban green infrastructure driven by development pressures. By combining time-series remote sensing, GIS-based spatial analysis, and predictive modeling, this study provides an integrative framework for detecting, interpreting, and forecasting urban land-cover change. The findings offer evidence-based insights to support sustainable urban planning, green infrastructure protection, and climate-resilient city management in rapidly growing urban environments.