Competitive Asymmetries and the Threat to Supply Chain Resilience: A Comparative Analysis of the EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement’s Impact on the European Union’s and Polish Agri-Food Sectors

This study analyzes the competitive asymmetries and trade effects of the proposed EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement on the European Union’s (EU) and Polish agri-food sectors. The comparative analysis reveals that Mercosur holds a significant structural advantage driven by substantially lower labor costs, cheaper agricultural land, and a climate permitting multiple harvests. This cost advantage is further compounded by weaker regulatory standards (e.g., on pesticides and antibiotics). This structural edge is most pronounced in high-volume commodities, leading to Mercosur trade surpluses in products such as soybeans, sugar cane, and wheat, which pose the primary competitive threats to the EU market. Conversely, the EU maintains an intensive advantage through superior yields in intensive farming (e.g., maize) and specialization in high-value, processed products. This creates quantifiable export opportunities for EU/Polish producers in sectors where Mercosur is a consistent net importer, notably other frozen vegetables, preserved tomatoes, and apples. The findings confirm an asymmetric effect of liberalization, which necessitates a dual strategy of internal structural reform (e.g., the EU Protein Strategy) and the implementation of external protective mechanisms, including strategic Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) adaptations and safeguard clauses, to maintain the long-term competitiveness and Supply Chain Resilience of European agriculture.