Microseismic Evolution and Deep Sliding Surface Identification of Baige Landslide near Jinsha River

The Baige Landslide, occurring twice within a month near the Jinsha River in Tibet, China, posed a threat to over three thousand lives. The range of the post-sliding fracture zone continues to expand, potentially triggering further landslides due to worsening micro-fractures in the deep rock mass. This study implements a microseismic monitoring system in the high-risk zone of the Baige Landslide to analyze the evolving damage processes within the deep rock mass. It examines spatial and temporal distributions of microseismic events, changes in energy, development of displacements, and predicts magnitudes. Based on microseismic data from the Baige Landslide, a method is proposed to predict and identify the deep sliding surface using microseismic parameter fitting and verification of surface macroscopic cracks. The results indicate a close correlation between sliding surfaces identified via microseismic parameter fitting and those identified through monitoring deep deformations and surface crack displacements. These findings provide a foundational framework for future mitigation and stability assessments of the Baige Landslide in the Jinsha River area, and offer valuable insights into predicting sliding surfaces in other potentially unstable landslide scenarios.