Epidemiological trends of gynecologic cancer burden in east Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2031

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the incidence rates, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers among females in East Asia (China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Japan, and Republic of Korea) between 1990 and 2021, and to predict the disease burden for the next decade. METHODS: The data were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 project. The joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model investigated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality risk. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the disease burden for the next decade. RESULTS: In 2021, the incidence rates, deaths, and DALYs due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers were rising in East Asia, but age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) showed different heterogeneity. For cervical cancer, joinpoint regression results showed that the ASIR of cervical cancer decreased to 8.88% in 2021 in the Republic of Korea, with an annual percent change of -1.75% (95% CI -2.04 to -1.47, P < 0.05). For ovarian cancer, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) in Mongolia and Japan have been much greater than in other East Asian nations since 1990. For uterine cancer, the ASMR and ASDR in the Republic of Korea were lower than in other East Asian countries. In the next decade, the absolute numbers of deaths due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers are expected to rise further in East Asia. CONCLUSION: In East Asia, cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers are a consistently increasing burden over time. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health interventions to mitigate the impact of these cancers.