The dynamics of late adolescent happiness: political, economic, environmental, and social determinants

We examine the decline in U.S. 12th-graders’ self-reported happiness using Monitoring the Future (MTF) data and annual indicators for 1976–2023. General-to-specific (GETS) selection and fully modified OLS (FMOLS) cointegration estimates indicate a long-run relationship in which climate-risk perceptions, homicide rates, and GDP per capita are negatively associated with happiness. VAR generalized impulse responses and local projections (LP) show consistent dynamics, with especially persistent negative effects after climate-risk and homicide-rate shocks. The results motivate an integrated policy agenda beyond screen-time regulation, emphasizing credible climate action, community safety, youth economic opportunities, and accessible school-based mental health support.