Research on Warning for urban management issues based on hotline data

For the “Passive and Rushing” work pattern issues in the urban management, this paper establishes a prediction model and a warning model for the urban management issues using prediction and warning theories, which based on the warning index system. The prediction model is constructed on the basis of urban management hotline data with the occurrence frequency features of the urban management issues. The paper has considerable results with the quadratic curve smoothing method and optimal search for smoothing parameters with 0.618 optimization method. Furthermore, by analyzing the generation factors and characters of urban management issues, it also establishes a warning model to promote urban management assistance. Practical instances show that the presented method in this paper has accurate prediction for the frequency of urban management issues. It will provide reliable evidences for the managers to handle the urban management issues more effectively and change the negative mode of “After Management” to be a more positive one. It also brings a referential idea for the innovations of urban management patterns.