Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Recreational Exposure to Water Bodies in Philadelphia

ABSTRACT: A quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted to estimate risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses associated with recreational exposure to Philadelphia waterways, under dry and wet weather conditions. Using maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic exposure models were generated for each exposure scenario and Monte Carlo techniques were applied to characterize uncertainty in final risk estimates. The dry‐weather risk estimates were found significantly lower than those predicted for wet‐weather conditions. Moreover, the predicted risk, calculated in proportion of the frequency of use, was elevated at 6 out of 10 sites (ranging from 9 to 52 illnesses/1000 users/day). Activities contributing most to the risk of GI illness at creeks were identified as wading and playing (81%), while fishing was the potential risk contributor (65%) at rivers. The quantitative measure of risk contribution from each type of water activity obtained from this study can be useful for policy makers in prioritizing the future interventions.