Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10‐year forecasting model

Abstract Aims To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar. Materials and Methods A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non‐fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40‐79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non‐fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality‐adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates. Results Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249‐112 172] non‐fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283‐65 520) non‐fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472‐14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718‐3 830 669) total quality‐adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53‐147.40 billion (US$2.06‐40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07‐162.60 billion (US$292.05 million‐44.55 billion)]. Conclusions The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.