Peer effects affect the adaptation behaviour of rural residents to geohazards in China: a new policy pathway

Disaster prevention and mitigation (DPM) is one of the responses to extreme climate change impacts and depends on the adoption of risk adaptation behaviour by rural residents. While residents exhibit a high willingness to adapt, they also show low behaviour with reference to DPM. While adaptation behaviour of individuals has been studied extensively, the mutual impact of adaptation behaviour among residents has so far been neglected in the literature. Evaluating this interaction could serve as an important foundation for refining disaster reduction policies. Drawing on social cognitive theory, we propose a novel theoretical framework to analyze peer effects on individual decision-making in DPM. Using data gathered from 536 respondents in Sichuan Province, China, this paper adopts the Bayes Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method to perform a regression of the spatial probit model. Further, the propensity score matching model was used to explore peer effects on the transformation between residents’ willingness to actual behaviour. Results indicate significant and robust peer effects on DPM behaviour among residents. A heterogeneity test indicated that peer effects are predominantly observed among residents with low and medium social status perception and not in those with high social status perception. Peer effects have a significant and positive influence on the transformation from residents’ willingness to their behaviour. Residents are not completely independent in their decision-making, and complex social mechanisms dictate rational and irrational choices of behaviour. Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider positive peer effects on residents in the formulation of policies.Key policy insights Focusing on the adaptation behaviours and peer effects of rural residents is conducive to improving the public's acceptance of disaster reduction policies.It is difficult for homogenization policies to accurately meet the needs of rural residents in China, and the response to geohazard events requires diversified local policies.Through peer effect, the government can create a kind of environmental soft pressure and promote the transformation of residents’ willingness into behaviour.Due to peer effects, the government can utilize the leading role of a small number of target groups to reduce the cost of implementing disaster reduction policies.