Modeling carbon emission trend in China's building sector to year 2060

Mitigating carbon emissions of China's building sector can significantly contribute toward realizing China's climate goals of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. To understand the carbon emission trend and tap the potential of emission mitigation, this study developed an innovative carbon emissions simulation model that considers climate area, building type and end-use service, and quantifies technique renovation by building metabolism. The results of this study represent China's building sector need to adopt stronger strategies to realize the carbon peak goal. To further conduct deep decarbonization and achieve carbon neutrality, the collective efforts of overall society will lead to the achievement of 64.51% carbon emission mitigation in 2060, decarbonization of electricity generation (47.85%), building stock regulation (M9: 14.24%, 0.14 BtCO2), and residential green behavior guidance (M10: 13.68%, 0.13 BtCO2) contribute the top three carbon abatement. Moreover, our results indicate that carbon capture, utilization, and storage techniques must be employed to realize the “last mile” of China building neutrality. Overall, this study provided a valuable reference and emission quantification tool for setting specific carbon emission mitigation goals.