Understanding the impact of cultivated land-use changes on China's grain production potential and policy implications: A perspective of non-agriculturalization, non-grainization, and marginalization

Cultivated land plays a pivotal role in ensuring national food security. The challenges of non-agriculture, non-grain production and the marginalization of cultivated land have become increasingly pronounced in the context of urbanization and industrialization in China, posing potential threats to long-term food security. This study employs a combination of remote sensing and statistical data to reveal the effects of non-agriculturalization, non-grainization, and the marginalization of cultivated land on grain production potential (GPP) at the grid scale. From 1992 to 2020, the total farmland area initially exhibited an ascending trend followed by a subsequent decline, resulting in a net decrease of approximately 0.84% in China. the northward shift in the center of gravity of cultivated land has accentuated the spatial disparity between grain production and consumption. Non-agriculturalization, non-grainization, and marginalization of cultivated land contributed 35.22%, 22.58%, and 42.20% to the GPP loss, respectively. GPP loss exhibited significant differences across the agroclimatic zones, with the combined loss in the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain exceeding 60% of the national total. Cultivated land marginalization has emerged as the most impactful land-use change affecting GPP, leading to a substantial loss of approximately 11471.30 × 104 t. The affected area is predominantly concentrated in the southern region. The marginalization of cultivated land has not been effectively alleviated, and the expansion trend continues. Conservation endeavors targeting cultivated land should prioritize enhancing farmers' willingness to cultivate, curbing the extensive utilization of farmland, and mitigating the escalating trend of farmland marginalization.