Global Dryland Transitions Under Climate Change: Threshold Dynamics, Aridification Expansion, and Earth System Feedback Collapse Risk

Climate change is fundamentally reshaping global dryland systems through rising temperatures, altered precipitation regimes, and increased frequency of extreme events. This paper develops a systems-based framework for understanding global desertification as a threshold-driven regime shift in the Earth system. We integrate atmospheric circulation changes, land–atmosphere feedbacks, hydrological disruption, and carbon–dust interactions into a unified conceptual model. Results indicate that global drylands are undergoing synchronized resilience decline, increasing the probability of large-scale ecosystem transitions toward desert states. Keywords Climate change; Aridification; Drylands; Drought; ENSO; Atmospheric circulation; Land-atmosphere feedback; Dust storms; Earth system science; Global change; Vegetation decline; Hydrological cycle; Regime shifts; Tipping points; Desert expansion