Plastic mulch productivity-sustainability tradeoffs and pathways toward an eco-friendly framework: insights from a global meta-analysis

Meeting global food demands by 2050 requires a 45-60% increase in agricultural production. Plasticulture has emerged as a pivotal yet controversial solution. Here we perform a meta-analysis synthesizing the findings of global studies and reveal that plastic mulch enhances crop yields by 28.7% and water use efficiency by 48.9% under diversified systems. In China (2015-2024), plasticulture contributed an additional 189 million tons (Mt) of staple food, conserved 33.5 million hectares of arable land, and reduced emissions by 438 Mt CO₂-equivalent. However, persistent plastic residues degrade soils, and nanoplastics infiltrate food chains, posing ecological and health risks. Despite global negotiations (2024-2025), a binding UN treaty on plastic pollution remains stalled due to disparities among players. To reconcile productivity with sustainability, we propose six evidence-based priorities: (1) scaling integrated eco-farming systems with AI-driven precise application of soil mulches; (2) accelerating material innovation, focusing on biodegradable films and organic-based alternatives; (3) deploying blockchain-enabled circular economies for plastic waste; (4) improving reuse and recycling infrastructure; (5) implementing localized incentive mechanisms to support plastic-free farming; and (6) integrating plastic management into UN carbon trading frameworks. These strategies can pivot plasticulture toward a climate-resilient, ecologically sustainable model-balancing food security with environmental stewardship in an era of climate uncertainty.