Global lake carbon burial from endorheic zones since the Last Glacial Maximum and the future projection

<p>Lake inorganic carbon burial in global closed basins has been recognized as a significant component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, the controlling factors governing its long-term dynamics and its future trajectory remain insufficiently understood. Here, we present a comprehensive dataset encompassing lake inorganic and organic carbon burial records from global closed basins since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), along with associated lake-level reconstructions, modern observations and climate model outputs. Through integrated analysis of lake carbon burial records and lake area simulation, our results indicate that inorganic carbon burial in closed-basin lakes since the LGM has been approximately twice that of organic carbon burial. The total carbon burial is estimated to be around 174 Pg, which accounts for roughly one-tenth of the soil carbon pool in global drylands, underscoring its significance in the global carbon cycle. Lake carbon burial rate has shown a continuous increase since the LGM, with interannual variations of lake carbon burial amount closely linked to fluctuations in lake area, which are primarily modulated by westerly winds and monsoon circulation in different closed basins. Under future global warming scenarios, with projected drying trend in global closed basins, the lake carbon burial potential by <styled-content style-type="number">2100</styled-content> is estimated to be approximately 1 Pg, which is about 5% lower compared to scenarios with stable lake area, highlighting the substantial role of lake carbon burial in shaping the future global carbon budget.</p>