Spatiotemporal Analysis and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Services Based on Land Use/Cover Change in a Mountain-Watershed Region, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) accompanied by climate change and human activities will have unpredictable impacts on watershed ecosystems. However, the extent to which these land use changes affect the spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) in different regions remains unclear. The impact of LUCC on ESs in the Qingjiang Watershed (QJW), an ecologically sensitive area, and LUCC’s role in future ESs under different land use scenarios are crucial to promoting ecological conservation and land use management. This paper assessed water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) using the InVEST model, and their responses to LUCC in the QJW from 1990 to 2018 using the geodetector and multiscale geographically weighted regression. We predicted land use patterns using the Logistic–CA–Markov model and their effects on ESs in 2034 under business as usual (BAU), ecological land protection (ELP), arable land protection (ALP) and ecological economic construction (EEC) scenarios. From 1990 to 2018, the area of cropland and woodland decreased by 28.3 and 138.17 km2, respectively, while the built-up land increased by 96.65 km2. The WY increased by 18.92%, while the SC, CS and HQ decreased by 26.94%, 1.05% and 0.4%, respectively. The increase in the arable land area led to a increase in WY, and the decrease in forest land and the increase in construction land led to a decrease in SC, CS and HQ. In addition to being influenced by land use patterns, WY and SC were influenced mainly by meteorological and topographical factors, respectively. In 2034, there was an obvious spatial growth conflict between cropland and construction land, especially in the area centered on Lichuan, Enshi and Yidu counties. Under four scenarios, WY and SC were ranked ALP > BAU > EEC > ELP, while CS and HQ were ranked ELP > EEC > BAU > ALP. Considering the sustainable eco-socio-economic development of the QJW, the EEC scenario can be chosen as a future development plan. These results can indicate how to rationally improve the supply of watershed ESs through land resource allocation, promoting sustainable regional development in mountainous watershed areas.