Identifying the coupling coordination relationship and driving forces between urbanization and the supply–demand of ecosystem service: a case study of the Gansu Province

Assessing the correlation between urbanization and the supply–demand of ecosystem services (ESS) aids in driving the sustainable and high-quality regional development. Exploring the degree of coupling coordination among urbanization and the supply and demand of ESS, as well as their relevant driving factors holds significant theoretical and practical value. This study utilizes elevation, meteorological, NDVI, population density, nighttime light, and socio-economic data to quantify the supply–demand relationships of ESS and the comprehensive urbanization level (CUL). It analyzed the ESS supply–demand and CUL in Gansu Province during the 2002–2022 period, and used the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to analyze their coupling coordination relationship at different scales. Finally, the geographic detector was applied to recognize the key driving factors that have an effect on CCD. The results indicate: (1) The supply–demand ratio (ESSDR) of water services and comprehensive ecosystem services (CESS) show an upward trend, while that of carbon services and soil services shows a downward trend, the change in habitat quality is not obvious. (2) CUL has increased and continues to rise, with regional development imbalances and a spatially scattered, point-like distribution pattern. (3) Overall, the CCD between CUL and ESSDR is low, with most regions in a state of imbalance, but the CCD level shows an overall upward trend. (4) In factor detection, socio-economic factors exhibit greater influence than natural factors, with population density has a relatively significant influence. In interaction detection, natural factors become the primary driving force, with NDVI showing a increase in influence when synergized with other factors.