Exploring carbon rebound effects in Chinese households’ consumption: A simulation analysis based on a multi-regional input–output framework

Improving energy efficiency is considered to be essential to carbon emission reduction. However, it may not be as effective as expected due to the rebound effect. This paper attempts to investigate the carbon rebound effects and rebound risks in households. For this purpose, a comprehensive analysis framework incorporating elastic estimates, environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model and re-spending model, were built. Three rebound risk indicators were then constructed, following which a simulation of direct and indirect carbon rebound effects was conducted for urban households in China. By comparing the estimation results of the four re-spending scenarios, we found these households’ carbon rebound effect to be significant. The empirical results further indicate significant differences in the rebound risk among different provinces. Overall, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia are the provinces most vulnerable to the rebound effect. These findings point to the necessity of the government adopting other measures besides energy efficiency policies, with regional differences taken into account, in order to curb the carbon rebound effect.