Prognostic value of epicardial adipose tissue volume in combination with coronary plaque and flow assessment for the prediction of major adverse cardiac events.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether EAT volume in combination with coronary CT angiography (CCTA)-derived plaque quantification and CT-derived fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) has prognostic implication with major adverse cardiac events (MACE).Patients (n = 117, 58 ± 10 years, 61% male) who had previously undergone invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and CCTA were retrospectively analyzed. Follow-up was performed to record MACE. EAT volume and plaque measures were derived from non-contrast and contrast-enhanced CT images using a semi-automatic software approach, while CT-FFR was calculated using a machine-learning algorithm. The diagnostic performance to identify MACE was evaluated using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis and concordance (C)-indices.During a median follow-up period of 40.4 months, 19 events were registered. EAT volume, CCTA ≥ 50% stenosis, and CT-FFR were significantly different in patients developing MACE (all p < 0.05). The following parameters were predictors of MACE in adjusted multivariable Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio [HR]): EAT volume (HR 2.21, p = 0.023), indexed EAT volume (HR 2.03, p = 0.035), and CCTA ≥ 50% (HR 1.05, p = 0.048). A model including Morise score, CCTA ≥ 50% stenosis, and EAT volume showed significantly improved C-index to Morise score alone (AUC 0.83 vs. 0.66, p = 0.004).Facing limitations in conventional cardiovascular risk scoring models, this observational study demonstrates that the prediction performance of our proposed method achieves a significant improvement in prognostic ability, especially when compared to models such as Morise score alone or its combination with CCTA and CT-FFR.