Global soil water erosion responses to climate and land use changes

Soil water erosion presents a significant challenge to the sustainable productivity of agriculture, making the precise prediction of its future patterns essential for ensuring global food security. However, there is a notable scarcity of global-scale explorations of soil water erosion and its anticipated future changes. This study proposes a method for calculating the C-factor using the fraction of land use/land cover change (LULCC) scenario data. Subsequently, we conduct an extensive evaluation of global water erosion from the 2010 s to the 2090 s under various climate change and LULCC scenarios, providing a comprehensive analysis of historical and projected erosion patterns. Predictions indicate a rapid increase in total soil erosion, but the rate of increase may decelerate after the 2050 s, with projected average increases of 6.8 %, 9.3 % and 11.3 % per 20-year interval under the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The most rapid increase in soil erosion rates is observed in lower-middle-income countries such as India and Tanzania, which are more sensitive to changes in climate and land use, whereas many high-income countries, predominantly in Europe, are likely to experience a reduction in erosion rates. We emphasize the roles of both climate change and LULCC in shaping future erosion dynamics. Specifically, while LULCC is the dominant factor under the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios, climate change emerges as the chief influencer in the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, particularly after the 2050 s. This highlights the importance of devising regional and scenario-specific mitigation approaches, especially for more vulnerable nations. The findings highlight the need for enhanced international cooperation and increased support from low- to middle-income countries to address the challenges of water erosion and promote global sustainability.