Moisture-modulated heatwaves: tracking 3D evolution patterns and projected changes

Abstract Heatwaves stand as one of the most consequential manifestations of global climate change. Their severity intensifies dramatically when extreme temperatures coincide with high humidity, posing compound threats to human health and natural systems. Here, we employ a three-dimensional (latitude × longitude × time) connectivity framework to analyze moisture-modulated heatwaves through daily lethal heat stress indices from 1979 to 2023. We identify 1,642 distinct events worldwide, revealing pronounced hemispheric asymmetry and characteristic regional propagation pathways. Over the past four decades, these heatwaves exhibited substantial intensification, with frequency rising by 12.26 events per decade and significant expansions in spatial extent and duration—despite an unexpected moderation in mean intensity. Multi-model ensemble projections indicate a transformative shift in heatwave characteristics throughout the 21st century, characterizing more frequent and prolonged events that manifest in increasingly localized patterns. Under high-emission scenarios, some regions may experience a threefold increase in event duration, with intensity potentially rising by 1.56°C by the late 21st century. Our findings elucidate the complex dynamics of moisture-modulated heatwaves and highlight the critical importance of integrated temperature-humidity metrics for climate adaptation and risk mitigation in a warming world.