Incidence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population: a dynamic cohort study

Objective Diabetes mellitus is a common condition often associated with an ageing population. However, only few longitudinal studies in China have investigated the incidence of diabetes and identified its risk factors. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of diabetes in Chinese people aged ≥45 years using the harmonised China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data. Design A dynamic cohort study. Setting The harmonised CHARLS 2011–2018. Participants 19 988 adults aged ≥45 years. Primary outcome measure Incident diabetes from 2011 to 2018. Results The harmonised CHARLS is a representative longitudinal survey of people aged ≥45 years. Using data extracted from the harmonised CHARLS, we calculated the incidence of diabetes and used a competing risk model to determine risk factors of diabetes. In 2011–2013, 2013–2015, 2015–2018, the crude incidence of diabetes among middle-aged and older people in China was 1403.21 (1227.09 to 1604.19), 1673.22 (1485.73 to 1883.92) and 3919.83 (3646.01 to 4213.30) per 100 000 person‐years, respectively, with a significant increasing trend. There were no geographical variations in the incidence of diabetes. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes. Conclusion The incidence of diabetes increased annually, without any geographical differences. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were found to be risk factors for incident diabetes.