Response of dissolved carbon dioxide and methane concentration to warming in shallow lakes

Shallow lake ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature fluctuation because of their high water surface-to-volume ratios. Shallow lakes have been increasingly identified as a hotspot of CO2 and CH4 emissions, but their response to temperature variation remains unclear. Here, we report from a 5-month outdoor mesocosm experiment where we investigated the impacts of a projected 3.5 °C future warming and monthly temperature changes on lake CO2 and CH4, as well as the key drivers affecting the lake carbon cycling. Our results show that CO2 and CH4 concentrations had a significantly positive correlation with monthly temperatures. CH4 concentration was primarily regulated by monthly temperature, while nutrients effects on CO2 concentration overrode climate warming and temporal temperature changes. These findings imply the varied roles that temperature and nutrient levels can play on CO2 and CH4 dynamics in shallow lake systems. The relationship between temperature and CO2 concentration was nonlinear, showing a threshold of approximately 9 °C, at which CO2 concentration could be strongly modified by nutrient level in the lake systems. Understanding this complex relationship between temperature with CO2 and CH4 concentrations in shallow lakes is crucial for effective lake management and efficient control of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions.