Estimating and projecting the effects of urbanization on the forest habitat quality in a highly urbanized area

Rapid urbanization poses significant challenges to biodiversity, making urban forests crucial for providing habitats and ecosystem services. This study focuses on seven districts in Seoul City that have been rapidly urbanized since the 1970 s, aiming to qualify and project the impact of urbanization on biodiversity through the response of habitat quality (HQ) values to historical changes in urban forests. We first simulated historical transformations using high-precision land use and land cover (LULC) data in 1972, 2000, and 2015. Then we projected changes in LULC up to 2030 using the Land Change Modeler. The HQ value of urban forests from 1972 to 2030 was quantified using the InVEST model. The results demonstrated a concerning decrease in urban forest areas with a loss of 1892.1 ha over the initial 40 years and a projected decrease of 281.9 ha in 2030. The HQ decreased from 1972 to 2000, where the area of urban forests with high and medium HQ decreased by 1952.5 and 301.1 ha, respectively. Our research provides valuable insights for policy-making of urban forest management and offers opportunities for developing sustainable strategies for future cities.