Prevalence, pain trajectories, and presurgical predictors for chronic postsurgical pain in a pediatric sample in Spain with a 24-month follow-up

Abstract Pediatric chronic pain, particularly chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP), poses a significant public health challenge, impacting 20% of pediatric populations. While several presurgical predictors have been identified, there is a scarcity of data on long-term outcomes, especially beyond 1 to 2 years postsurgery. Previous research primarily focuses on North American children, creating gaps in understanding CPSP outcomes in diverse health systems, such as in Spain. This study, registered as NCT04735211, investigates CPSP in 159 children and adolescents (mean age = 12.4 years, 37.1% girls, retention rate = 65%) undergoing various surgeries in Spain. The objectives include examining CPSP prevalence (Numerical Rating Scale ≥ 4) at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, exploring postsurgical pain trajectories through group-based trajectory modeling, and identifying potential presurgical predictors for CPSP (pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, pain anxiety, fear of pain, kinesiophobia, health-related quality of life, pain interference, and physical activity), using multiple logistic regressions. Results show a CPSP prevalence of 41% at 3 months, decreasing to 14% at 24 months. Presurgical factors including pain intensity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.53), pain catastrophizing (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.00-1.13), and pain anxiety (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11) were associated with CPSP at 3 months. Group-based trajectory modeling revealed 3 postsurgical pain trajectories: Low Pain with Rapid Recovery Group (30.2%), Moderate Pain with Recovery Group (53.5%), and High Pain with Slow Recovery Group (16.3%), with group differences in presurgical predictors, excluding physical activity. This study contributes valuable insights into CPSP, emphasizing the need for long-term follow-up. The findings could inform the implementation of preventive programs for CPSP into diverse health systems.