Population change and economic development in Mainland China since 1400.

A long-term upward shifting population fluctuation was traced from 500 B.C. to the present in mainland China. Since before the 20th Century mainland Chinas economic base was agricultural estimated agricultural production functions were mathematically expressed with respect to labor productivity and land productivity to determine the influence of economic development on population growth. Differences between high and low estimates of total agricultural production average population/capita and per mou of land birth rate and death rate were insignificantly small especially for years after 1750. Land productivity increased with fluctuations before 1730 and suddenly increased by 50% in the following 70 years rising in a less rapid and more irregular fashion thereafter. Estimated birth rate remained steady at 37-42/1000 for the study period. Death rate however fluctuated from 26-41/1000. On the whole the complete set of estimates show that the size of the Chinese population and therefore per capita consumption has been in equilibrium at least 6 times since 1400. For nearly 500 of the last 550 years population and consumption (1900 calories/day) were above equilibrium values; this resulted from the continuous technological progress in traditional agriculture. A demographic cycle of Chinese population history is thus quantitatively supported.