Advancing Assessments of Climate Change Vulnerability of West Virginia Watersheds

As climate change is becoming increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic ecosystems, climate adaptation planning, in both the long- and short-term, is becoming more common in natural resource management. There is a need within conservation agencies to develop methodologies and assessments that support adaptation planning to efficiently disperse conservation dollars and effectively strengthen ecological and community resilience as climate changes continue. My thesis aims to provide West Virginia natural resources managers with climate vulnerability assessments that can be used to determine where and how conservation efforts should be administered. Additionally, I demonstrate a methodology that can be built upon and used by managers in additional regions. In chapter 1, I provide background information on climate change, climate change effects on freshwater systems, and specifics of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances in West Virginia. I also provide information relevant to human dimensions, such as resilience and equity, resulting from conservation management. Lastly, I state the conclusions and resulting goals for my thesis research. In chapter 2, I look to understand climate change vulnerability within West Virginia and Central Appalachia at the watershed scale. I evaluate species, assemblage, and habitat vulnerabilities to derive a watershed scale vulnerability for West Virginia’s 32 HUC 8 watersheds. I found that the Lower Kanawha, Upper Kanawha, the Middle Ohio South were the watersheds most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, the Upper Ohio South and the James watersheds were among the least vulnerable to climate change. These results indicate that essential conservation areas for climate change exist within the Lower Kanawha, Upper Kanawha, and Middle Ohio South watersheds and, in general, the western region of the state. Additionally, this chapter provides a framework for managers to utilize and elucidate the capacity of watersheds to endure climate change using species and habitat vulnerabilities. In chapter 3, I establish an index of socioecological vulnerability across West Virginia. Using the watershed vulnerabilities established in chapter 2 and the Center for Disease Control Social Vulnerability Index, I highlight patterns of high ecological and social vulnerability using a Hot Spot Analysis and establish areas of conservation priority that align with principles of environmental justice. I found that areas of high socioecological vulnerability exist primarily within the Upper Kanawha, Lower Kanawha, and Little Kanawha watersheds. This spatial relationship of vulnerable communities to vulnerable environments is intended to assist officials in planning social programs and subsidies and indicate priority conservation areas.