Understanding the impact on energy transition of consumer behavior and enterprise decisions through evolutionary game analysis

Abstract As the increasingly serious environmental problems have attracted more and more attention to the sustainable use of energy, not only are consumers increasingly concerned about the environmentally friendly use of energy, but enterprises are also beginning to place emphasis on the sustainability transition. Understanding the impact of consumer behavior and enterprise decision on the energy transition is critical to achieving an effective and comprehensive energy sustainable development. We applied an evolutionary game model based on psychological perceptions, focusing on the demands and evolutionary stabilization strategies of both parties. Simulation experiments were used to evaluate the behavioral changes of consumers and enterprises to determine the results of their game on energy transition under different conditions. We found that the effectiveness of government incentives to promote the energy transition depends on the consumers’ own attitudes toward the energy transition. If consumers simply greed for material rewards or have a bad impression of the government, then incentives will be useless or even negative for advancing the energy transition. We identified that enterprises choose energy transition strategies only if the support of consumers bring considerable market prospects and a good social reputation. This study confirmed the decisive role of consumers’ and enterprises’ strategic choices in the effective implementation of the energy transition, which should be taken into account in the development of energy policies. Since the energy transition involves all aspects of society, stakeholders such as consumers, enterprises and governments should make further efforts to promote the energy transition and improve environmental sustainability.