The new CORSIA baseline has limited motivation to promote the green recovery of global aviation

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is the first programme to tackle carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a single industry at the global level, to realize the carbon-neutral growth of international flights from 2020 onwards. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a drastic decline in the global aviation industry. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has adjusted the CORSIA by removing 2020 emissions from the baseline, which now will only be based on 2019 emissions. We estimate that the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global international flights decreased by 70 % from February to July 2020 compared to those in 2019. Our analysis suggests that the annual CO2 emissions from international flights during the pilot stage of CORSIA (2021–2023) will be far below the revised baseline even if the global aviation industry could embrace an optimistic recovery. The major airline companies will have very limited motivations due to the CORSIA scheme to implement mitigation actions proactively. Therefore, more progressive actions are needed to align the industry recovery of global aviation and climate change mitigation during the post-COVID-19 period.