城市化
温室气体
气候变化
人口变化
人口
人口增长
人口老龄化
化石燃料
二氧化碳
自然资源经济学
人口规模
老化
环境科学
地理
经济
人口学
经济增长
生态学
生物
社会学
遗传学
作者
Brian C. O’Neill,Brantley Liddle,Leiwen Jiang,Kirk R. Smith,Shonali Pachauri,Michael Dalton,Regina Fuchs
出处
期刊:The Lancet
[Elsevier]
日期:2012-07-01
卷期号:380 (9837): 157-164
被引量:178
标识
DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60958-1
摘要
Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
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