Predicting Weight Loss and Maintenance in Overweight/Obese Pediatric Patients

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Pediatric lifestyle interventions have positive short-term effects on obese patients. Studies on long-term effects are still scarce in Europe. We investigated long-term weight patterns and sociodemographic predictors of a weight change in a large Central European (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) overweight pediatric cohort. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The APV (Adiposity Patients Verlaufsbeobachtung) database was retrospectively analyzed; 157 specialized childhood obesity centers contributed standardized data of 29,181 patients [body mass index (BMI) ≥90th percentile; 5-25 years old] presenting between 2000 and 2012. BMI standard deviation scores (BMI-SDS) were analyzed in a 2-year follow-up and grouped according to BMI-SDS changes. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between sociodemographic factors and weight patterns. <b><i>Results:</i></b> 2-year follow-up data were available in 3,135 patients (54.6% female). Five distinct weight trajectories ‘rapid weight loss' (n = 735, 23.4%), ‘delayed success' (n = 697, 22.2%), ‘cycling weight' (n = 43, 1.4%), ‘initial weight loss' and ‘weight rebound' (n = 383, 12.2%) and ‘no weight loss throughout' (n = 1,277, 40.7%) best characterized long-term BMI-SDS changes. Younger and male patients were more likely to reduce weight and maintain weight loss. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Our results suggest that an intervention before the onset of puberty seems promising for long-term weight maintenance in overweight children. Thus, new concepts are needed to improve long-term treatment success in patients with lower success rates.