Farm‐level agricultural productivity and adaptation to extreme heat

Abstract Harnessing farm‐level fluctuations in weather over time, we investigate the impact of extreme heat on farm‐level agricultural productivity and adaptation strategies in Nigeria. We employ data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS‐ISA) from the years 2010, 2012, and 2015. Our findings show that although current high temperatures decrease crop yields, the overall agricultural output value is not affected by high temperatures, primarily due to increments in the area under cultivation. Our analysis also reveals that farmers re‐allocate farm inputs in the face of high temperatures. Specifically, farmers shift from productivity boosting inputs, like fertilizers, to protective measures such as pesticides. This is accompanied by a greater dependence on hired labor after experiencing high temperatures in the previous year. Additionally, we find an increase in the adoption of mixed‐cropping practices as a response to the high temperatures in the current season, indicating differential effects of high temperatures on crop production decisions. These insights highlight the importance of considering farm‐level adaptive behaviors in policymaking, especially in initiatives aimed at increasing the use of specific inputs, as high temperatures can undermine such policy goals.