PI-RADS upgrading as the strongest predictor for the presence of clinically significant prostate cancer in patients with initial PI-RADS-3 lesions

Abstract Purpose Unclear lesions on multiparametric magnetic resonance tomography (mpMRI) are challenging for the indication of biopsy in patients with clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The aim of this study is the validation of the detection rate of clinically significant PCa (csPCa) in patients with PI-RADS 3 findings and to determine the appropriate follow-up strategy. Methods In this retrospective single-center study, patients with maximum PI-RADS 3 lesions underwent targeted MRI/ultrasound-fusion biopsy (tPbx) combined with systematic 12-core biopsy (sPbx) and follow-up mpMRI with further control biopsy. We assessed the evolution of MRI findings (PI-RADS, volume of the lesion), clinical parameters and histopathology in follow-up MRI and biopsies. The primary objective is the detection rate of csPCa, defined as ISUP ≥ 2 findings. Results A total of 126 patients (median PSA 6.65 ng/ml; median PSA-density (PSAD) 0.13 ng/ml 2 ) were included. The initial biopsy identified low-risk PCa in 24 cases (19%). During follow-up biopsy, 22.2% of patients showed PI-RADS upgrading (PI-RADS > 3), and 29 patients (23%) exhibited a tumor upgrading. Patients with PI-RADS upgrading had a higher risk of csPCa compared to those without PI-RADS upgrading (42.9% vs. 9.18%, p < 0.05). PI-RADS upgrading was identified as an independent predictor for csPCa in follow-up biopsy (OR 16.20; 95% CI 1.17–224.60; p = 0.038). Conclusion Patients with stable PI-RADS 3 findings may not require a follow-up biopsy. Instead, it is advisable to schedule an MRI, considering that PI-RADS upgrading serves as an independent predictor for csPCa.