气候变化
医学
人口学
伤害预防
毒物控制
自杀预防
温室气体
相对风险
环境科学
环境卫生
气候学
置信区间
内科学
地质学
社会学
生物
生态学
作者
Yong Zhou,Ya Gao,Peng Yin,Cheng He,Wei Liu,Haidong Kan,Maigeng Zhou,Renjie Chen
出处
期刊:JAMA Psychiatry
[American Medical Association]
日期:2023-05-01
卷期号:80 (5): 488-488
被引量:2
标识
DOI:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2023.0301
摘要
Few studies have projected future suicide burden associated with daily temperatures in a warming climate.To assess the burden of suicide death associated with daily nonoptimal temperature and to project the change of suicide burden associated with nonoptimal temperature in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios.Between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, we conducted a time-stratified, case-control study among more than 430 000 individual suicide decedents from all counties in mainland China.Daily meteorological data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Fifth Generation (ERA5) reanalysis product. Historical and future temperature series were projected under 3 scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980 to 2099, with 10 general circulation models.The relative risk (RR) and burden of suicide death associated with nonoptimal temperature (ie, temperatures greater than or less than minimum-mortality temperature); the change of suicide burden associated with future climate warming in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios.Of 432 008 individuals (mean [SD] age; 57.6 [19.0] years; 253 093 male [58.6%]) who died by suicide, 85.8% (370 577) had a middle school education or less. The temperature-suicide associations were approximately linear, with increasing death risks at higher temperatures. The excess risk was more prominent among older adults (ie, ≥75 years; RR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.46-1.99) and those with low education level (ie, middle school education or less; RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57). There were 15.2% suicide deaths (95% estimated CI [eCI], 14.6%-15.6%) associated with nonoptimal temperature nationally. Consistent and drastic increases in excess suicide deaths over this century were predicted under the high-emission scenario, whereas a leveling-off trend after the mid-21st century was predicted under the medium- and low-emission scenarios. Nationally, compared with the historical period (1980-2009), excess suicide deaths were predicted to increase by 8.3% to 11.4% in the 2050s and 8.5% to 21.7% in the 2090s under the 3 scenarios. The projected percentage increments of excess suicide deaths were predicted to be greater in the South (55.0%; 95% eCI, 30.5%-85.6%) and in winter (54.5%; 95% eCI, 30.4%-77.0%) in the 2090s under the high-emission scenario.Findings of this nationwide case-control study suggest that higher temperature may be associated with the risk and burden of suicide death in China. These findings highlight the importance of implementing effective climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tailoring public health policies to adapt to global warming.
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