Associations between Physical Activity Trajectories and Incident Hypertension

Purpose: We aimed to characterize physical activity (PA) trajectories across adulthood and to estimate their association with incident hypertension risk. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) conducted during 2004–2011. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify distinct groups of PA trajectories. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the association. Results: A total of 11,162 participants whose PA was repeatedly estimated by self-report from questionnaires two to four times in the CHNS were included in our study. During the 5.4 years of follow-up, 3824 incident hypertension cases were identified. Five distinct PA trajectories were identified in men: light and slight decline, light and gradual decline then sharp rise, light to medium-heavy then decline, medium-heavy and gradual decline, and heavy and sharp decline. Two distinct PA trajectories were identified in women: light and stable, and medium and gradual decline. The PA trajectory of medium-heavy and gradual decline was significantly associated with decreased risk of hypertension in men, with the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) being 0.80 (0.63, 0.99), 0.74 (0.59, 0.93), 0.76 (0.60, 0.96), and 0.70 (0.55, 0.88) in models 1–4, respectively. Conclusions: Our study identified five distinct long-term PA trajectories in men and two distinct trajectories in women. The PA trajectory of medium-heavy PA in early adulthood followed by gradual decline was found to be significantly associated with a decreased risk of hypertension in later life in men.