Predicting patients with poor functional outcome after spontaneous aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: the predicting subarachnoid hemorrhage long-term outcome score

OBJECTIVE Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a critical condition with high morbidity and mortality. Despite medical advances, predicting functional outcomes 1 year after the hemorrhage remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop, compare, and validate a predictive score for 1-year functional outcomes after SAH. METHODS This monocentric, retrospective observational study included all adults admitted to a neurosurgical ICU for aneurysmal SAH from 2002 to 2020, excluding moribund patients. The primary endpoint was a poor 1-year functional outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 4 to 6. Independent risk factors for poor outcomes were identified using multivariate logistic regression in a derivation cohort. The predicting SAH long-term outcome (PSL) score was compared with the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS), Fisher, and admission bioclinical scores and validated in an independent cohort. RESULTS In the overall population (n = 1564), 21% experienced poor functional outcomes at 1 year. In the derivation cohort (n = 1095), independent predictors of poor outcomes included age (p < 0.001), WFNS score (p < 0.001), troponin level (p = 0.007), S100β level (p = 0.01), surgical or coiling complications (p < 0.001), incomplete aneurysm exclusion (p = 0.03), and hydrocephalus requiring CSF drainage (p = 0.002). The PSL score achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.88), outperforming other scores. These findings were consistent across various subgroups. In the validation cohort (n = 469), the PSL score achieved an ROC-AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.85), surpassing the WFNS and Fisher scores, with a negative predictive value of 95% (95% CI 94%–97%). CONCLUSIONS The authors developed a simple and effective score to identify predictors of poor 1-year functional outcomes at admission and early after aneurysmal SAH in a large cohort.