Changes in natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today's society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community. As the world's third pole, the global warming amplifier, and the starting region of China's climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change. The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates (NGHs) resources. Under the background of global warming, whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community. Given this, this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming, aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau. A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Over the past decades, the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high more recently. Specifically, the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308‒0.420°C/10a and increased by approximately 1.54‒2.10°C in the past decades. Moreover, the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155‒1.575°C and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10⁶ km² from about 1.4×10⁶ km² to 1.06×10⁶ km² in the past decades. As indicated by simulated calculation results, the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29‒39 m in the past 50 years, with the equivalent of (1.69‒2.27)×10¹⁰‒(1.12‒1.51)×10¹² m³ of methane (CH₄) being released due to NGHs dissociation. It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m, respectively and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of (1.34‒88.8)×10¹⁰ m³ and (1.57‒104)×10¹⁰ m³ of CH₄, respectively by 2030 and 2050. Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH₄ has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH₄ into the atmosphere, which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming. Therefore, the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality. Therefore, this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGH extraction, storage, and transportation, and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them. The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect, thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.