Study on Production System Optimization and Productivity Prediction of Deep Coalbed Methane Wells Considering Thermal–Hydraulic–Mechanical Coupling Effects

Deep coalbed methane (CBM) resources possess significant potential. However, their development is challenged by geological characteristics such as high in situ stress and low permeability. Furthermore, existing production strategies often prove inadequate. In order to achieve long-term stable production of deep coalbed methane reservoirs and increase their final recoverable reserves, it is urgent to construct a scientific and reasonable drainage system. This study focuses on the deep CBM reservoir in the Daning-Jixian Block of the Ordos Basin. First, a thermal–hydraulic–mechanical (THM) multi-physics coupling mathematical model was constructed and validated against historical well production data. Then, the model was used to forecast production. Finally, key control measures for enhancing well productivity were identified through production strategy adjustment. The results indicate that controlling the bottom-hole flowing pressure drop rate at 1.5 times the current pressure drop rate accelerates the early-stage pressure drop, enabling gas wells to reach the peak gas production earlier. The optimized pressure drop rates for each stage are as follows: 0.15 MPa/d during the dewatering stage, 0.057 MPa/d during the gas production rise stage, 0.035 MPa/d during the stable production stage, and 0.01 MPa/d during the production decline stage. This strategy increases peak daily gas production by 15.90% and cumulative production by 3.68%. It also avoids excessive pressure drop, which can cause premature production decline during the stable phase. Consequently, the approach maximizes production over the entire life cycle of the well. Mechanistically, the 1.5× flowing pressure drop offers multiple advantages. Firstly, it significantly shortens the dewatering and production ramp-up periods. This acceleration promotes efficient gas desorption, increasing the desorbed gas volume by 1.9%, and enhances diffusion, yielding a 39.2% higher peak diffusion rate, all while preserving reservoir properties. Additionally, this strategy synergistically optimizes the water saturation and temperature fields, which mitigates the water-blocking effect. Furthermore, by enhancing coal matrix shrinkage, it rebounds permeability to 88.9%, thus avoiding stress-induced damage from aggressive extraction.