FMEA risk assessment method based on large-scale group decision-making in social networks: considering quantum interference and multiple identities

Purpose In quantum theory, the interference between the opinions of different decision-makers in group decision-making creates an unobservable interference effect, known as quantum entanglement. To address the interference effects caused by experts’ multiple identities during the decision-making process, this paper proposes a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method to analyze the interference effect on the priority of failure modes. Design/methodology/approach The study constructs a large-scale group decision-making model in social networks to assess natural hazards’ risk. A social network is constructed to describe the relationships among experts in the FMEA group, and the PageRank algorithm is established to determine expert weights. We quantify the interference caused by multiple identities of experts using information entropy. We update risk factors and subgroup weights considering quantum interference. Grey relational analysis is employed to facilitate the prioritization of failure modes. Findings The results of this study show that the failure modes requiring priority attention in the Huludao rainstorm on August 20, 2024, include the lack of an effective meteorological monitoring system, the absence of mandatory drills and delay in returning to normal life. Originality/value This study evaluates risks from the perspective of quantum cognition and analyzes the interference effects of multiple identities on group decision-making. The priority of failure modes obtained by our methods is more in line with the actual decision-making situation.