Impacts of population aging on tourism development in China: direct, indirect and spatial perspectives

The increase in global life expectancy and population aging profoundly affect tourism development. This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of population aging on tourism development using China's provincial panel data (2003–2022) and the China Family Panel Studies (2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020). A two-way fixed econometric model and the spatial Durbin model are applied to account for the distinct structures of the datasets. The results show that population aging positively influences tourism development, both directly and indirectly, through labour supply and consumer demand. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that tourism enterprises, Eastern regions, and higher education have significant and positive moderation effects between population aging and tourism development. Population aging also exhibits significant and negative spatial spillover effects on tourism development. This study provides a unified framework to explore the relationship between aging and tourism development, offering new insights into senior tourism and its implications for China's population aging.