The influence of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on agricultural value chain participation: insights from a global trade analysis project model simulation

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the world's largest free trade area, involving several major agricultural countries and significantly impacting international agricultural trade. Although existing studies examine the effect of the RCEP on the total trade value of agricultural products, a notable gap exists concerning its effects on agricultural value chain participation. This study addresses this gap by employing a Global Trade Analysis Project model with a dynamic recursive method for data updates, setting simulation scenarios based on tariff commitments and integrating a global value chain accounting framework. We construct indices for regional and global value chain participation and positions to assess the impact of the RCEP on member countries' agricultural value chains. Our findings indicate that the RCEP enhances agricultural value chain participation for most member countries and improves the regional agricultural value chain positions of China, South Korea and Australia, while negatively affecting those of other member countries. This study contributes to the literature by providing a value chain perspective, offering strategic insights for member countries to leverage the RCEP for high-quality agricultural economic development and generating broader implications for understanding the effects of similar trade agreements on trade liberalization and value chain participation.