Multi-criteria framework for identifying the trade-offs and synergies relationship of ecosystem services based on ecosystem services bundles

The interaction relationship of ecosystem services (ESs) is among the most critical objective in natural resource management. However, a complexity of the spatial heterogeneity of delivering multiple ESs from social-ecological system was seldomly considered. To enhance the linkage between the spatial concordance and interaction relationship of ESs, we presented a multi-criteria framework for identifying the trade-offs and synergies relationship of ESs. The conceptual steps were to i) divide the ES groups based on different ES bundles, ii) select appropriate methods for each ES bundle based on the number of dominant ESs and iii) determine the trade-offs and synergies relationship of pair-wise ESs among ES bundles. The framework was tested in the Guangdong- Hong Kong- Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the period of 2000 to 2015, which can be implemented by using InVEST model, K-means clustering algorithm and correlation analysis method. The results show that 4 different ES bundles had been identified, which exhibits the spatial distribution of Bundle 1 to Bundle 4 had an extensive trend from central regions to fringe regions in the GBA. Partial correlation analysis and spearman correlation analysis were selected to quantify the trade-off and synergies relationship of ESs for each ES bundle. Meanwhile, the trade-offs and synergies relationship of ESs among each bundle was compared with the total areas of GBA, which exhibits a proportion of conspicuous differences. It indicated the framework could distinguish the spatiotemporal heterogeneity on the trade-offs and synergies relationship of ESs. A favorable application on the GBA underscored the interrelationship of multiple ESs should consider a spatiotemporal variation of the stability and ability to deliver multiple ESs from a social-ecological system. The framework for understanding the interaction relationship presented here offers a feasible workflow to evaluate trade-off strategies and policies of ecosystem management.