Can hydropower develop as expected in China? A scenario analysis based on system dynamics model

Abstract Recently, Chinese government has determined to guide the energy structure adjustment. The rapid development of hydropower is still important for the low-carbon transition. Therefore, we established a scenario-based system dynamics model considering emission trade scheme (ETS) and government policy. 4 scenarios (No ETS & policy; Only ETS; Only policy; Both ETS & policy) were established to investigate the development path of hydropower in China. In 2030, the installed-capacity of conventional hydropower will reach 364.2, 416.1, 428.7 and 470.5 million kW under four scenarios; and the installed-capacity of pumped-storage power will be 75.8, 85.6, 95.5 and 100.8 million kW under four scenarios. Note that, the development paths of installed-capacity and power generation of pumped-storage power and conventional hydropower are characterized by oblate “S-shaped” curves. By analyzing the differences between scenario 2 (Only ETS) and scenario 3 (Only policy), we can conclude that the effect of policy support on the development of hydropower is larger than the ETS. The conclusions derived from sensitivity analysis show that the changes in policy intensity have greater impact than changes in ETS price. In brief, all the results and discussions can help Chinese government shape a development plan for hydropower generation.