Forest dynamics and carbon storage under climate change in a subtropical mountainous region in central China

Abstract Climate change has been observed to significantly influence forest growth, community composition, and species distribution ranges. These influences in turn will impose continuous impacts on forest production and carbon (C) storage potential. Forests in the subtropical China that are experiencing rapid regeneration and recovery may suffer multiple threats in the face of future climate change. Understanding how climate change may affect forest C sequestration and species dynamics over time will help formulate better management strategies for maintaining forest productivity and biodiversity. Here, we used a forest landscape model ( LANDIS ‐ II ) to evaluate the long‐term effects of current business‐as‐usual ( BAU ) management and climate projections (current, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios; IPCC representative concentration pathways [ RCP s] scenarios) on above‐ and belowground forest C storage and tree species dynamics in the Sangzhi County in the subtropical China. Our simulations showed a fast‐growing period of forest total C in the first 70 yr, regardless of climate regime. Moderate climate change ( RCP 4.5 climate scenario) increased soil organic carbon ( SOC ) (12%) and detrital C (16%) but reduced live C (5%), contributing to a slight augment of 3% in forest C storage compared to the control climate, while severe climate change ( RCP 8.5 climate scenario) decreased SOC (16%), detrital C (27%), and live C (12%), resulting in a dramatic reduction of 14% in forest C storage, primarily because severe warming‐induced water stress restrained species establishment and regeneration in temperature‐sensitive areas like the lower elevations. Meanwhile, nature reserves in the higher elevations could act as “safe islands” by providing suitable conditions for most tree species, but the logging ban caused higher canopy closure, which in turn inhibit the growth and establishment of shade‐intolerant species. The results also highlighted the positive responses of native “warm species” to climate warming and suggest that using them to replace some conventional coniferous plantation tree species would better mitigate the future climate change. Poor performance of the current BAU management in maintaining forest productivity and diversity suggests that new climate‐adapted management strategies should be designed accordingly.