Meta-analytic and MaxEnt model prediction, the distribution of the Bactrocera minax (Diptera: Tephritidae), in China under changing climate

Abstract The Tephritidae family causes damage to fruits in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, with Bactrocera minax Enderlein (Diptera: Tephritidae) widely distributed in China, causing severe economic damage to Chinese citrus. Currently, preventing the rapid spread of B. minax remains an effective strategy to control it as the climate continues to warm in the future. In this context, it is crucial to understand the potential geographic range of B. minax under climate change. We used meta-analysis to assess the survival of Tephritidae insects under temperature stress. We also used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the suitable regions and migration trajectories of B. minax in China under current and future climatic conditions. Through comprehensive analysis of the experimental data, we found that the survival rate of Tephritidae insects in the suitable temperature range showed an increasing trend with the increase in warming extent. Using the MaxEnt model, we observed that the highly suitable area, as well as the moderately suitable area of B. minax, were expanding in all 3 future climate scenarios, with the distribution moving toward the high latitude region and the coastal region of China. Our results also indicate that temperature and precipitation contribute more to the model in the current year. Combining multiexperiment data, our study demonstrates that the potential distribution of B. minax in China will expand under future climate warming scenarios, and these predictions will provide important information for monitoring B. minax and informing managers in developing control strategies.