Development zone policy and high-quality economic growth: quasi-natural experimental evidence from China

Improving total factor productivity (TFP) promotes high-quality development. This study estimates the TFP of 284 cities in China for the period 2006–18, and constructs a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) model of the impact of national development zones (DZs) on regional TFP. The findings are as follows: (1) although DZs improve economic performance, they have not created high-quality growth; (2) despite heterogeneous effects on high-quality development, the overall effect remains negative; and (3) the suppression effect is greater in central and western than in eastern cities, and in underdeveloped than in developed cities. Finally, policies should consider the quality of growth, and a framework of classified policy instruments is needed.