Drivers of ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies in different land use policy zones of Shaanxi Province, China

Clarifying the marginal effects of dominant factors influencing ecosystem services in different land use policy zones and the resulting changes in trade-offs and synergies within ecosystem services is an essential prerequisite for the sophisticated management of ecosystem services. Moreover, it is a crucial requirement for achieving the sustained provision of ecosystem services and sustainable human development. This study quantified spatial and temporal changes of ecosystem services in different land use policy zones of Shaanxi, assessed the marginal effects of drivers using the random forest, and explained the relationships within ecosystem services by the geographically weighted regression model. The results showed that water yield (WY) increased in the Economic Development Zone, food Production (FP), water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) improved in the Ecological Enhancement Zone and Ecological Restoration Zone. In contrast, water yield (WY) and soil conservation (SC) in the Ecological Conservation Zone decreased from 2000 to 2020. Changes in the dominant factors in different policy zones affected ecosystem services in a non-stationary manner. For example, the initial increase in construction land ratio would lead to complex and dramatic effects on multiple ecosystem services. Differences in the most significant factors and their respective marginal effects led to disparities in transformations of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in different land use policy zones. The area of trade-offs between water yield (WY) and carbon storage (CS) decreased by 1.67% in the Ecological Conservation Zone, while it increased by 1.53% in the Ecological Restoration Zone. This study could provide theoretical guidance for different policy zones to optimize ecological management policies, coordinate human-earth relations, and achieve sustainable development.