Predicting the risk of neurocognitive decline after brain irradiation in adult patients with a primary brain tumor

Deterioration of neurocognitive function in adult patients with a primary brain tumor is the most concerning side effect of radiotherapy. This study was aimed to develop and evaluate Normal-Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models using clinical and dose-volume measures for 6-month, 1-year and 2-year Neurocognitive Decline (ND) post-radiotherapy.A total of 219 patients with a primary brain tumor treated with radical photon and/or proton radiotherapy (RT) between 2019 and 2022 were included. Controlled Oral Word Association (COWA) test, Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLTR) and Trail Making Test (TMT) were used to objectively measure ND. A comprehensive set of potential clinical and dose-volume measures on several brain structures were considered for statistical modelling. Clinical, dose-volume and combined models were constructed and internally tested in terms of discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC), calibration (Mean Absolute Error, MAE) and net benefit.50%, 44.5% and 42.7% of the patients developed ND at 6-month, 1-year and 2-year timepoints, respectively. Following predictors were included in the combined model for 6-month ND: age at radiotherapy>56 years (OR=5.71), overweight (OR=0.49), obesity (OR=0.35), chemotherapy (OR=2.23), brain V20Gy≥20% (OR=3.53), brainstem volume≥26cc (OR=0.39) and hypothalamus volume≥0.5cc (OR=0.4). Decision curve analysis showed that the combined models had the highest net benefits at 6-month (AUC=0.79, MAE=0.021), 1-year (AUC=0.72, MAE=0.027) and 2-year (AUC=0.69, MAE=0.038) timepoints.The proposed NTCP models use easy-to-obtain predictors to identify patients at high-risk of ND after brain RT. These models can potentially provide a base for RT-related decisions and post-therapy neurocognitive rehabilitation interventions.