Role of socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical factors in the progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in China: A 10-year prospective cohort study

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity has become increasingly common over the past few decades. Little is known about how risk factors affect temporal progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity. We aim to explore the role of socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical risk factors in the progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity.This prospective cohort study included 56,587 participants aged ≥45 years who were free of diabetes, stroke, and heart disease. Three clusters of risk factors were assessed and each on a 5-point scale: socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical factors. We used multi-state models (MSMs) to examine the roles of risk factors in five transitions of multimorbidity trajectory: from healthy to first cardiometabolic disease, first cardiometabolic disease to cardiometabolic multimorbidity, health to mortality, first cardiometabolic disease to mortality, and cardiometabolic multimorbidity to mortality. In MSMs, socioeconomic (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.19-1.25) and clinical (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.51-1.56) scales were associated with the transition from health to first cardiometabolic. Socioeconomic (HR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.24-2.54) and lifestyle (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.18-1.26) scales were associated with the transitions from first disease to cardiometabolic multimorbidity. In addition, socioeconomic and lifestyle scales were associated with increased risk of mortality in people without cardiometabolic disease, with first cardiometabolic disease, and with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.Socioeconomic and lifestyle factors were not only important predictors of multimorbidity in those with existing cardiometabolic disease, but also important in shaping risk of mortality. However, clinical factors were the only key determinants of incidence of a first cardiometabolic disease.