大流行
2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)
时间范围
人口
流行病模型
接种疫苗
流行病学
计算机科学
地理
人口学
计量经济学
传染病(医学专业)
疾病
医学
数学
病毒学
社会学
数学优化
内科学
病理
作者
Mattia Zanella,Chiara Bardelli,Giacomo Dimarco,Silvia Deandrea,Pietro Perotti,Maria Vittoria Azzi,Silvia Figini,Giuseppe Toscani
标识
DOI:10.1142/s021820252150055x
摘要
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in terms of contact dynamics. Our contribution is devoted to provide a possible planning of the needs of medical infrastructures in the Pavia Province and to suggest different scenarios about the vaccination campaign which possibly help in reducing the fatalities and/or reducing the number of infected in the population. The proposed research combines a new mathematical description of the spread of an infectious diseases which takes into account both age and average daily social contacts with a detailed analysis of the dataset of all traced infected individuals in the Province of Pavia. These information are used to develop a data-driven model in which calibration and feeding of the model are extensively used. The epidemiological evolution is obtained by relying on an approach based on statistical mechanics. This leads to study the evolution over time of a system of probability distributions characterizing the age and social contacts of the population. One of the main outcomes shows that, as expected, the spread of the disease is closely related to the mean number of contacts of individuals. The model permits to forecast thanks to an uncertainty quantification approach and in the short time horizon, the average number and the confidence bands of expected hospitalized classified by age and to test different options for an effective vaccination campaign with age-decreasing priority.
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