From Accelerated Life Test to Accurate Degradation Prediction of CdTe PV Devices: A Modeling Approach

An accurate prediction of solar module performance during long-term field operation has been one of the key system-level challenges since the beginning of Photovoltaic (PV) technologies commercialization. In this study, we develop an orthogonal model that predicts long-term metastable behaviors of thin-film CdTe-based PV devices under varied climate conditions. The model can be parametrized using data from a multi-temperature ALT. We describe both the model and the parametrization procedure, and confirm the prediction accuracy by comparing forecasted device performance against service-life measured data collected from First Solar operated field tests. This modeling approach could have the potential to be adopted for other types of PV technologies.